Evel Knievel and COP26
Evel Knievel, the stunt motorcyclist famous for his very long jumps, once teased that he would attempt to jump the Grand Canyon. I’m sure that with the right team and crucially the right calculations he would have attempted it. It would have been worth a fortune, a life and death adventure live on TV. But perhaps he didn’t in the end try it because he discovered that his team had worked out that he only had a 75% chance of landing on the other side. This is not to say that his team wouldn’t have done their best, adding bits of chrome (so to speak) to all the televisual parts and maybe even tuning the carburettors to maximum performance and oiling the launch pad like never before. All this activity would have produced a marvellous show of effort (and a TV series in itself) and everybody would have said ‘We’ll get a result’ - and a 75% chance won’t be too bad.’ Except poor Evel smashes into the bottom of the Grand Canyon and dies, because there’s no escaping the fact that 100% was absolutely required.* Even 99% would have been dodgy.
COP26 is aiming for 60%. Anyone for tea?
* Evel didn't attempt this jump and didn't die (well not straightaway).
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