Crystal ball gazing

According to the opinion polls, President Trump and Prime Minister Starmer will be elected more or less at the same, promising four years of co-existence. Starmer has said that whatever the result of the US elections, he will of necessity have to work with whoever sits in the Oval office. Given Starmer’s current record of obeisance to the US, this does not augur well. His alleged collusion with US security interests over Julian Assange is a telling example. His absolute commitment to NATO another—although in this case Trump in his blundering way may accidentally set a trap or two. Then there’s the much vaunted post-Brexit trade deal with the US, which Biden has shown little enthusiasm for. Will that change under Trump? I suspect there won’t be any progress there, given Trump’s protectionist views—so if something were to emerge it wouldn’t likely be anything advantageous to the UK. Unlike Theresa May, I don’t think Starmer will be rushing across the pond to be seen to be the first to hold hands with Trump. I imagine The Great Buffoon (Trump, that is) will be keener to entertain his like-minded autocrats from abroad. Could Starmer imagine himself to be a restraining influence on Trump? The precedents don’t serve us well. Blair and Bush, anyone? So at the moment it’s hard to see how this relationship will pan out, if it pans out at all. The notion of a ‘special relationship’ will become even more specious. One happy consequence of this could be a rejuvenated relationship with the EU, which Starmer wants apparently and which I am sure would be very welcome in Europe where growing nationalisms loom. This doesn’t mean undoing Brexit. In fact, I’m not sure what it would mean if we were looking for concrete outcomes. But if it meant Starmer became more engaged with Brussels than Trump I wouldn’t complain.