2020 vision

How worried should we be about what 2020 beckons? The UK will be the focus for three dominant themes: climate change, Brexit and break-up. Climate change comes first because it is by a country mile more important than practically everything else combined, and of course the UK will host the COP conference in Glasgow towards the end of the year. I regret to say I don’t see any progress being made on that front. The Copenhagen COP meeting in 2009 was widely regarded as the ‘last chance saloon’ and ever since—a whole decade for God’s sake—participants have been drinking themselves under the table, a bunch of unreformed alcoholics (can you blame them?).
 
Brexit next. A UK/EU trade deal may easily fail to materialise by December 31st next year, in which case we crash out without a deal. In the year ending June, 2019 of the UK’s total trade of £1,336.5bn, £654bn was with the EU. Our next biggest market was the US, amounting to £190bn.(ONS figures) It would seem clear where our bread is mainly buttered, so why wouldn’t we want to maintain a most favoured status with the EU? But how compatible will such a deal be with whatever new deal we might strike with the land of chlorinated chicken and defenestrated environmental protections (Trump has abandoned scores of US environmental regulations since being elected)? Our beloved Prime Minister may feel somewhat conflicted. Surely not getting a new, expansionary deal with the US would negate the whole point of Brexit (never mind the ‘taking back control’ bullshit)? Other markets are dwarfed by our two biggest: total trade with China for example came to £68bn. So unless we really want to cut our nose off to spite our face, we should aim for a deal on practically the current terms with the EU. That would suit them, so it shouldn’t actually be difficult to achieve by the end of next year—it will be interesting to see by whom, and how that prospect will be undermined.
 
Thirdly, the break-up of the UK. Let’s get on with it. The imperial crap is over.