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There’s not a clear pattern yet of a consistent anti-Trump bounce for leaders in polls across the West. Yes, Mark Carney was a major recipient of such a boost in Canada but the Danish premier, who called an early election, whilst doing well didn’t get a great result, indeed she lost in poll share but (just) remained in poll position to lead the next Danish coalition government. Here in the UK the situation is summed up in this clickbait (below). Starmer is treading on thin ice, on the one foot toeing the ’special relationship’ line, whilst no doubt taking advice from whoever replaced Morgan McSweeny telling him that a little resolute British Bulldog Spirit will help Labour’s chances in May’s various election contests. One hopes Trump won’t pay too much attention to that. But the message is going to be: we don’t currently have anybody who could replace Starmer. Actually there’s 100% truth in that. Nobody in the Parliamentary Labour Party will want to be the first to plunge the knife. They are I imagine a skittish lot now, wondering how with their massive parliamentary majority they aren’t achieving anything that cuts through. Do any of them want to save their seats? I know what I’m about to say is not the correct received political wisdom, but I think a good ding-dong inside the party would refresh its appeal, rescuing it from it’s current semi-moribund state. What’s there to lose? But there’d have to be a really good ding-dong.
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July 2026
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