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This coming Sunday there will be dancing in the streets and late-night parties as the UK celebrates the tenth anniversary of the Brexit vote. What a great day it will be as we recall how much ‘control’ we have taken back! And all that extra money being spent on the NHS as a direct result of not coughing up billions to Brussels! And of course not having to cope with millions of Turkish immigrants. On that last point we do now seem to have many more Turkish barbers then ten years ago. I wonder if Nigel Farrago has an explanation for that? Anyway, we should take stock of all the benefits we’ve enjoyed since leaving the EU, so I asked ChatGTP what I think was a neutral question: What have been the economic impacts of Brexit? This was the answer -
‘Brexit has imposed a persistent, measurable drag on the UK economy, with most high‑quality studies now converging on a long‑run GDP loss of roughly 5–10% compared with remaining in the EU. This impact comes through four main channels: lower trade, reduced investment, weaker productivity, and changes in migration flows.’ Is it too soon to talk about this failed experiment? I don’t think so, although in our current febrile political atmosphere it is clearly a risk, and one which Wes Streeting has contemplated. The question is how can people who voted to leave the EU consider the possibility of being wrong now reconfigure their position without a huge loss of face, not least when the snake-oil salesmen (they/them) of Reform UK offer simplistic solutions to all our woes? The whole Brexit thing was illegitimate - the way the referendum was constructed, sold to the public and eventually negotiated. The complexities of it were never properly explored and lo and behold—we’re all now worse off. Party on!
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July 2026
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