Here we go, here we go, here we go

The long wait is nearly over and we stand on the verge of history, an epochal election that will change everybody’s lives forever. Well, maybe not, but hyperbole seems to be the order of the day. To listen to some pundits you’d think today was yer actual D-Day. But enough of the rightwing press. The question now is: what will be the character of the new government? On past evidence, it will start off with a managerial mindset, seeking to work within the bounds of its admittedly dire inheritance and its unambitious policy objectives. Its promises will come under immediate pressure, and taxation commitments will be the first to feel the heat. There is nothing unusual in this—many governments have quickly broken pledges on tax, at least since the days when Thatcher promised in the 1979 election not to increase VAT. It was practically the first thing she did. The party has had an aversion to saying much about Capital Gains Tax. That I suspect will change quite early on in the new government’s term. The party is committed to public services, but nobody should expect much relief on that front. Austerity will continue. In foreign affairs David Lammy has spoken of his friendship with rightwing Republicans—he says we may have to work with these people. Where I wonder will his pragmatism lead to as democracies take a rightward tilt? The outcome is predictable, and we have seen how Starmer, the great human rights lawyer, has fled that scene in fear of Washington’s opprobrium. Will there be anything solid about the Labour government? I suspect not, if Starmer’s performance vis-à-vis the Labour Party is concerned. Although not quite—his crackdown and purges of the left have displayed a consistent intolerance of opposing, or even questionning narratives. In the likelihood of becoming prime minister with virtually no coherent parliamentary opposition he will I think become an early victim of his own hubris. He might even believe his own propaganda, which is to say that his victory was more to do with him and ‘His’ changed Labour Party rather than the shambolic meltdown of the Tories.
 
Where will the new government be in two year’s time? It really is anybody’s guess. A huge parliamentary majority will be wasted. Having said which individual MPs can achieve good things. And of course we will be grateful to see the back of the Tories. That relief may not last long if and when the right regroups. Remember a cautionary tale from Canada, 1993:
 
‘The PCs [Progressive Conservatives] were further weakened by the emergence of new parties that were competing for its core supporters. [Prime Minister] Campbell's initial efforts helped the party recover somewhat in pre-election polls before the writs were issued. However, this momentum did not last, and the Progressive Conservatives suffered the most lopsided defeat for a Canadian governing party at the federal level, which was also the worst ever suffered by a governing party in the Western democratic world, losing all but 2 of their 156 seats and more than half of their vote from 1988.’ (Wikipedia)
 
It took a while but eventually a new version of the Canadian Conservatives were back in power—a party which interestingly enough was refashioned with the inclusion of something known as Reform. On our side of the pond their fellow travellers may look to the Canadian experience and seek to learn lessons from it far faster.