2026 here we come!

Soooo . . . . here we are again, it’s that day when one wonders what will happen in the new year. Will it be a time of hope or despair? Well, that’s the hope bit sorted, now let’s look to the other side of the coin. Putting to one side the encroaching climate disaster which will not abate, two things (at least) come to mind. Russia’s war on Ukraine and a large section of the British public’s rejection of Keir Starmer. There will also be a mid-term test for Trump, but I’ll leave that to one side for now (but reproduced below is evidence that POTUS is truly deranged, and more of his fans are noticing).
 
To Russia, will 2026 be the year the Ukraine war ends? A theory is that the Russian economy will collapse under the strain of military spending, foreign sanctions and other forms of economic isolation. I asked ChatGTP what the chances of Russian economic collapse are and was told ‘not imminent’:
 
‘Russia still has: Strong energy revenues (even discounted); tight state control over the economy; a population accustomed to economic hardship; and a central bank that has proven competent at crisis management.’

For some reason I have been able to access the RT (Russia Today) website—it has been blocked for quite a while. An article there by someone called Henry Johnston echoes ChatGTP’s assessment:

‘The Russian economy has been remarkably resilient, but it is clearly operating under strain and with heavy government intervention. However, the conditions that typically trigger a sudden, acute crisis are nowhere to be found, and people who think otherwise misunderstand what actually causes financial crises.’ (RT accessed 1st January 2026)

Johnston describes at length why he has formed that conclusion, which isn’t all rosy for the Russian economy, but suggests it’s a long way from running on fumes. I get the impression though that it is busily spending its future and could end up something like a Ponzi scheme. Just no time soon.

With no sign of decisive Western intervention (even the EU’s 80 billion Euro loan to Ukraine is nothing more than a very large sticking plaster) the war is likely to drag on. Or will the second of ChatGTP’s comments—’a population accustomed to economic hardship’  - give way to rebellion? Which leaders who have relied on repression to maintain power have preserved their regimes? Can patriotism trump having no bread?

As to my second 2026 question, what will be the future for Project Keir? I’m afraid I can offer no alternative to the general punditry consensus: after disastrous local and devolved election results in May, our beloved leader will be toast.

To round off this new year’s day blog, here’s two screenshots of recent Trump stories. I mentioned a few blogs ago how dictators get to define ’enemies of the people.’ It wasn’t long before confirmation came. And secondly, what kind of person writes, presumably without irony, a post about the death of someone by making the story chiefly about himself?